This function creates a prior distribution for Bayesian audit sampling according to several methods discussed in Derks et al. (2020). The returned object is of class `jfaPrior`

and can be used with associated `print()`

and `plot()`

methods. `jfaPrior`

objects can be used as input for the `prior`

argument in other functions.

For more details on how to use this function see the package vignette:
`vignette("jfa", package = "jfa")`

auditPrior(confidence = 0.95, likelihood = "binomial", method = "none", expectedError = 0, N = NULL, materiality = NULL, ir = 1, cr = 1, pHmin = NULL, pHplus = NULL, factor = 1, sampleN = 0, sampleK = 0)

confidence | the confidence level desired from the confidence bound (on a scale from 0 to 1). Defaults to 0.95, or 95% confidence. |
---|---|

likelihood | can be one of |

method | the method by which the prior distribution is constructed. Defaults to the |

expectedError | a fraction representing the percentage of expected mistakes in the sample relative to the total size, or a number (>= 1) that represents the number of expected mistakes. |

N | the population size (only required when |

materiality | a value between 0 and 1 representing the materiality of the audit as a fraction of the total size or value. Can be |

ir | the inherent risk probability from the audit risk model. Defaults to 1 for 100% risk. |

cr | the inherent risk probability from the audit risk model. Defaults to 1 for 100% risk. |

pHmin | When using |

pHplus | When using |

factor | When using |

sampleN | When using method |

sampleK | When using method |

An object of class `jfaPrior`

containing:

the method by which the prior distribution is constructed.

the likelihood by which the prior distribution is updated.

the method by which the prior distribution is constructed.

the expected error input.

if specified as input, the population size.

if specified, the materiality that was used to construct the prior distribution.

a description of the prior distribution, including parameters and the implicit sample.

a list of statistics of the prior distribution, including the mean, mode, median, and upper bound.

a list of optional specifications of the prior distribution, these depend on the method used.

if a materiality is specified, a list of statistics about the hypotheses including prior probabilities and odds.

This section elaborates on the available likelihoods and corresponding prior distributions for the `likelihood`

argument.

`poisson`

: The Poisson likelihood is used as a likelihood for monetary unit sampling (MUS). Its likelihood function is defined as: $$p(x) = \frac{\lambda^x e^{-\lambda}}{x!}$$ The conjugate*gamma(\(\alpha, \beta\))*prior has probability density function: $$f(x; \alpha, \beta) = \frac{\beta^\alpha x^{\alpha - 1} e^{-\beta x}}{\Gamma(\alpha)}$$`binomial`

: The binomial likelihood is used as a likelihood for record sampling*with*replacement. Its likelihood function is defined as: $$p(x) = {n \choose k} p^k (1 - p)^{n - k}$$ The conjugate*beta(\(\alpha, \beta\))*prior has probability density function: $$f(x; \alpha, \beta) = \frac{1}{B(\alpha, \beta)} x^{\alpha - 1} (1 - x)^{\beta - 1}$$`hypergeometric`

: The hypergeometric likelihood is used as a likelihood for record sampling*without*replacement. Its likelihood function is defined as: $$p(x = k) = \frac{{K \choose k} {N - K \choose n - k}}{{N \choose n}}$$ The conjugate*beta-binomial(\(\alpha, \beta\))*prior (Dyer and Pierce, 1993) has probability density function: $$f(k | n, \alpha, \beta) = {n \choose k} \frac{B(k + \alpha, n - k + \beta)}{B(\alpha, \beta)}$$

This section elaborates on the available methods for constructing a prior distribution.

`none`

: This method constructs a prior distribution according to the principle of minimum information.`median`

: This method constructs a prior distribution so that the prior probabilities of tolerable and intolerable misstatement are equal.`hypotheses`

: This method constructs a prior distribution with specified prior probabilities for the hypotheses of tolerable and intolerable misstatement. Requires specification of the`pHmin`

and`pHplus`

arguments.`arm`

: This method constructs a prior distribution according to the assessed risks in the audit risk model. Requires specification of the`ir`

and`cr`

arguments.`sample`

: This method constructs a prior distribution on the basis of an earlier sample. Requires specification of the`sampleN`

and`sampleK`

arguments.`factor`

: This method constructs a prior distribution on the basis of last year's results and a weighting factor. Requires specification of the`factor`

,`sampleN`

and`sampleK`

arguments.

Derks, K., de Swart, J., Wagenmakers, E.-J., Wille, J., & Wetzels, R. (2019). JASP for audit: Bayesian tools for the auditing practice.

Derks, K., de Swart, J., van Batenburg, P. Wagenmakers, E.-J., & Wetzels, R. (2020). Priors in a Bayesian Audit: How Integrating Information into the Prior Distribution can Improve Audit Transparency and Efficiency.

Koen Derks, k.derks@nyenrode.nl

library(jfa) # Specify the materiality, confidence, and expected errors: materiality <- 0.05 # 5% confidence <- 0.95 # 95% expectedError <- 0.025 # 2.5% # Specify the inherent risk (ir) and control risk (cr): ir <- 1 # 100% cr <- 0.6 # 60% # Create a beta prior distribution according to the Audit Risk Model (arm) # and a binomial likelihood: prior <- auditPrior(confidence = confidence, likelihood = "binomial", method = "arm", expectedError = expectedError, materiality = materiality, ir = ir, cr = cr) print(prior)#> # ------------------------------------------------------------ #> # jfa Prior Distribution Summary (Bayesian) #> # ------------------------------------------------------------ #> # Input: #> # #> # Confidence: 95% #> # Expected sample errors: 2.5% #> # Likelihood: binomial #> # Specifics: Inherent risk = 1; Internal control risk = 0.6; Detection risk = 0.08 #> # ------------------------------------------------------------ #> # Output: #> # #> # Prior distribution: beta(α = 2.275, β = 50.725) #> # Implicit sample size: 51 #> # Implicit errors: 1.27 #> # ------------------------------------------------------------ #> # Statistics: #> # #> # Upper bound: 0.1 #> # Precision: 0.07 #> # Mode: 0.02 #> # Mean: 0.04 #> # Median: 0.04 #> # ------------------------------------------------------------# ------------------------------------------------------------ # jfa Prior Distribution Summary (Bayesian) # ------------------------------------------------------------ # Input: # # Confidence: 0.95 # Expected sample errors: 0.02 # Likelihood: binomial # Specifics: Inherent risk = 1; Internal control risk = 0.6; Detection risk = 0.08 # ------------------------------------------------------------ # Output: # # Prior distribution: beta(2.275, 50.725) # Implicit sample size: 51 # Implicit errors: 1.27 # ------------------------------------------------------------ # Statistics: # # Upper bound: 0.1 # Precision: 7.1% # Mode: 0.02 # Mean: 0.04 # Median: 0.04 # ------------------------------------------------------------